Tutorial Forex

Trading futures contracts on crude oil, wheat, corn, coffee, soybeans, pork bellies, cattle, interest rates, currencies, gold, ethanol, heating, gasoline, silver, copper and others can be highly lucrative. Remember the summer of 2008 when crude oil prices jumped from around $60 to around $150 per barrel in a matter of two to three months. Those who had been trading crude oil futures made a lot of money during those few months. Similarly, gold market is in an unprecedented boom for the last many years. However, many people are just afraid of trading futures. Most invest in stocks thinking that futures trading is risky. Statistically speaking futures trading is no more riskier than stock trading. However, the returns in trading commodity futures can be much higher than those in stocks.

If you want to trade commodities than trading commodity futures is the best way to profit from the boom in the commodity market. Richard Dennis had started with only $400 and ended up making more than $200 Million trading commodities. Now, let’s discuss the three largest futures exchanges in the world. There are many futures exchanges in the world but these three are the most popular and the most important.

Futures trading is no doubt risky but if you learn it, it can be highly profitable. As said before, Ricard Dennis and his turtles used to trade the most liquid contracts in the market. The number one is the CME ( Chicago Mercantile Exchange). The futures contracts that get traded on CME include among others stock index futures, foreign currencies, interest rates, commodities, environmental futures and others.

Now as said before, commodities is an important asset class. CME provides you with the opportunity to trade many commodity contracts. The commodities futures that get traded on CME include cattle, butter, limber, pork bellies, Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, live cattle, milk, lean hogs, feeder and fertilizer.

CME provides you with the opportunity to trade futures contracts on these stock indexes as well as their mini versions the E-Minis. Now, one of the ways to trade stock market is to trade stock indexes like the various S&P 500 like the S&P 500 Midcap, Small Cap as well as the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100.

Other important futures contracts that get traded on CME include single stock futures, futures on ETFs and futures on Japanese Nikkei 225 Index. CME group also has the GLOBEX Electronic Trading Platform that allows electronic trading of futures contract almost around the clock.

The world premier futures exchange is the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The futures contracts that are available on CBOT include agricultural futures like the corn, wheat, soybeans, ethanol, rice and mini contracts on corn, soybeans and wheat.

Interest rate related futures contracts that get traded on CBOT include Treasury Bonds, FED Funds, spreads, municipal bonds, German debt and swaps. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures popularly known as Dow futures and its E-Mini version plus gold and silver futures and their mini versions also gets traded on CBOT.

The third most important exchange is NYMEX. Now the best place to trade crude oil, natural gas, gasoline as as well as a host of other energy futures in the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange).This is infact the global hub for energy trading and offers futures contracts on unleaded gasoline, heating oil, electricity, light sweet crude, natural gas, propane and coal.

Futures trading is something that is not difficult to do once you get the hang of it. In the beginning, you should just paper trade these contracts for a few months! NYMEX also provides you with the opportunity to trade precious metals like the gold, silver, platinum as well as palladium. You can also trade metals like copper and aluminum on NYMEX.

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If you are looking for a direct real time market sentiment indicator than you need to look no more. Trading volume of a stock or what that matter any security is a direct real time market sentiment indicator that when combined with technical indicators can give highly profitable trading signals. When the trading volume is high, it means that the current trend in the market will continue.

Volume figures are very important for traders. Stock and futures markets have volume data that helps the traders and investors in knowing how heavy a certain stock or futures contract is being traded. In case of futures market, volume figures are delayed by one trading day. Volume data is not possible for currency markets as the market is unregulated and over the counter due to which this data is unavailable.

As the futures contracts near the delivery month, volume increases. This increase in trading volume is good for traders and hedgers as it means better price discovery.

A Limit Up Day is a sign of strength however, a limit down day is usually followed by trading collars. You should know the Limit Days in futures market. Limit days are those days when a futures contract makes a big move in a very short period of time with heavy volume.

Open interest is the number of open contracts of a security in the market during a given trading period. Open interest is particularly an important tool for futures traders. Volume data alone can be confusing. So as a trader, you need to use volume data in conjunction with technical indicators. This way, you can understand the signficance of trading volume change and the trend change. You should also understand how volume data is reported in the stock and the futures market.

Open interest only applies to futures and options contracts and not to stocks. Open interest is the number of contracts entered into during a specific period of time but have not been liquidated or settled.

Open interest is the total number of contracts of a particular security that is long or short. Open interest rises by one when a new buyer or a new seller enters the market and takes a position in a security. Charting open interest alongwith the price charts can be an important means of tracking a contract.

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Everyone wants to ride the rising tide in the stock market by buying stocks and later on selling them at a higher price to make a capital gain. However, can you make money when the tide in the stock market is going down? Yes, you can with short selling. In short selling, yo borrow a stock from your broker and sell it. Later on you buy it back at a much lower price and return it your broker making a good capital gain.

Now, when you go short and the market suddenly turns against you in the sense that it goes in the wrong direction, you are in trouble. You want to buy back the stock but the price is continously going up. The harder it becomes to buy back the required number of shares, the more desperate you will become and the higher the prices can go before you are able to buy back the required number of shares and return them to your broker. So in a way, short selling is tricky and must only be practiced by the experienced traders. Now for short selling to work, the stock price should go down otherwize, you will make a hefty loss in case the stock price starts to go up. Since, you are trading with a borrowed stock, you have to return that stock to your broker. In case the stock price goes up, you will have to buy it back at a much higher price with a loss.

In case of futures or options, you don’t need to borrow the security; you simply agree to sell the contract when you go short. Why do investors take a short position? The most obvious reason is that they are expecting the price to go down further. Short selling is also used for hedging purposes.

There is something very important that you need to keep an eye on when you go short selling. It is known as Short Interest Ratios. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ, both report the short interest in stocks listed on them,however, this is done on a monthly basis as brokers need sometime to collect the data of shares that they have lended to their clients for shorting. This will help you monitor the rate of short selling in the market. If the rate is too high, it means that too many investors are taking short positions and you need to avoid it.

Now this number is known as the Short Interest Ratio. Short Interest Ratio is a very important number for short sellers as it can give important clues about the investor expectation to the short sellers.

Short Interest Ratio reports the number of shares of a particular stock that has been shorted, the percentage change from the previous months, the average daily volume for that stock in the same month and the number of days of trading at the average volume that it would take to cover the short positions.

The problem with Short Interest Ratio is that it is not calculated frequently. It is calculated on monthly basis. So, the trader cannot use it to gauge the short positions in the market on a daily or weekly basis. However, it can give you the general trend in the market. A high short interest ratio should make you nervous if you have taken a short position in that stock as most of the investors who are short will soon become desperate to dump that stock in the market and cover their short positions.

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Trend trading is the one of the best and most profitable trading strategy used by many traders. Infact, spotting a trend at the right time and riding it till the end can make you rich. When you are trading a trend, you are intereste din knowing how fast the trend is changing or what you may call moving whether it is moving up or down. When the rate of change of a trend goes up, it means that the price action is soon going to follow suit and rise as well!

What we have been talking about is Momentum! Just like high school physics, momentum is the rate of change and is calculated by dividing the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and multiplying it by hundred.

If the price went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100 and if the price went up, the momentum indicator will be more than 100. Now, when the momentum indicator is greater than 100, the trend is expected to continue in the future. This is your shockingly simple momentum indicator that you can use profitably in your trading. Now, if the price did not change, the momentum indicator will obviously will be 100.

Momentum is a leading indicator. It tells you what is likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. Momentum trading is done with some attention to the fundamentals. When key business fundamentals like the sales or profits are accelerating at the same time the security price is going up, momentum is likely to continue.

As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing. However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing.

So when you are doing momentum investing, you are looking for a security or a stock that has a potential to move big. How long this big move might take to materialize? Well, the expectation is for the big move to happen in a few weeks to a few months. Just like in ordinary physics, when a ball is set in motion, it will continue moving unless stopped. This is what the Newton’s First Law says. You can expect a security price to keep on rising as long as something drastic doesn’t happen to stop that rise. So what can be that something drastic? It can be a sudden breaking news about the misdoings of the management that have not been known to the public before. I am just giving you one example. There can be more. So before you do your momentum investing, it is always better to do some fundamental research on the company. Remember the Dot Com Bubble that burst and hurt many people a decade back. Lot of people were doing momentum investing without doing fundamental research on the stocks that they were investing in. So you need to do some fundamental research as well to ascertain that the rise in prices of a stock are sustainable over the long haul or not.

There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.

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Short selling is one of the favorite day trading strategies employed by many day traders. Many companies hate short sellers as they believe that short sellers were responsible in the fall of their stock prices. Nothing can be far from the truth. Short selling is just like anyother market mechanism that provides liquidity and better price discovery. Short selling can never destroy a company if its’ fundamentals are strong. Many stock brokers now let you short stocks with just the click of a mouse. When you sell stocks from your online brokerage account, the message asks you whether you are selling your own shares or short selling. You just need to click once on short selling and the rest is taken care of by the broker. These shares are a loan to you by the broker that you will have to return at a later date!

In some cases, the brokerage firm cannot borrow the shares as so many people have sold the stock short that there are no more shares to borrow. In that case, you will have to find another stock or use another strategy.

Day traders are not looking for long term fundamentals in order to go short. A day trader might go short on a stock that had go up for three consecutive days, figuring that they will go down on the fourth day. Day traders are only looking for stock that might go down in price for mundane reasons.

In simple words, once the stock starts to move down, you cannot short it. You will have to wait for its price to move up on the last trade, before your short selling order can be executed by the broker. Now, you cannot straight away short a stock as there are mechanisms in place employed by msot of the stock exchanges that don’t want a massive shorting attack on a stock. There is the famous Uptick Rule that has been put in place to prevent that from happening. What the Uptick Rule means is that you cannot short a stock unless it moves up on the last trade. This rule has been placed to prevent a stock from being driven down to almost zero by short sellers.

If you are wrong in your short selling decision, your loss can be catastrophic.How much risky short selling can be? Well, in theory there is no stopping a stock price to reach the sky. But don’t worry, short sellers also use stop loss so if the price starts to move up, your position will get closed automatically by the stop loss order.

Know something known as Short Squeeze. Once that happens, almost all short sellers get desperate to dump their stocks and exit but when they try to buy back the stock, they get more hurt as the prices go even higher and higher on rising demand for the stock in the market. Now, don’t get caught in the market with short selling when good news spreads about the stock that you had shorted driving its price up.

As said before, companies, investors and many brokers hate short sellers. They think that short sellers had intentionally driven down the stock prices. So sometimes, they will spread rumors of good news to create a momentary short squeeze. Sometimes, a campaign will be started by the owners of a particular stock instructing their brokers not to loan out their stocks to short sellers. So if you have already shorted that stock, you might get a call from your broker to return that stock immediately. In such a case, you will have to immediately return the stock even if it doesn’t make any sense to you!

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Bullish necklines candlestick pattern is a two stick trend confirming pattern. When this pattern appears during the uptrend, it is a signal that the uptrend is still in force and is expected to continue for sometime in the future. Now, there are two type of neckline patterns, the in neck and the out neck pattern.

On the first day, there will be a long bullish candle indicating that heavy buying took place during the day. On the second day or what you call the signal day, there will be a bearish candle that can be long or short with a closing price almost close to the first day. Necklines pattern is a two stick pattern. What this means is that it takes two days on the daily chart for this pattern to form.

Now,there can be two types of Neckline Patterns depending on the closing prices on the signal and the setup days. If the closing price on the signal day is almost near the closing price on the setup day, it is an On Neck Pattern. In case, if the closing price on the first day is little lower than the closing price on the signal day, it is a In Neck Pattern.

Not much of a difference but you should nevertheless know this difference. Both on neck and in neck pattern tell the same story, so even if you are not able of distinguish between them, doesn’t make much of a difference. When this pattern appears in an uptrend, it means that the uptrend will continue in the future.

Now, let’s talk about a trend reversal candlestick pattern; The Bearish Meeting Line. On the first day or what you call the setup day, you will find a long bullish candle.What this means is that heavy buying took place throughout the day. On the second day or what you call the signal day, you will find a gap opening. This is a Bearish Meeting Line Trend Reversal Pattern. What is means is that the trend is about to reverse itself soon! This gap entices the sellers to start selling that continues throughout the day. This will result in a long bearish candle on the second or what you call the signal day. This long bearish candle should have a close very near the open of the low of the day as well as the close should be very near to the close on the first or what you call the setup day.

In case of the bearish piercing line candlestick pattern, the setup day is bullish with long bullish candle. The signal day is bearish with an opening higher than the setup days high. What this means is that on the signal day sellers came rushing in, pushing prices down through the setup days opening price and below its midpoint.

This pattern usually occurs in the last stages of an uptrend and when it happens, it means that the trend is about to reverse itself. When this Bearish Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern is formed, it means that the price action has lost it’s momentum.

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There has been a lot said about etf trading system. People who are into etf trading know that the biggest advantage of using a software trading platform is it provides diversification. Your funds exist in what is called containers or baskets. If you have traded stocks then this is going to be slightly different from that.

There area number of ways you can increase the funds by using the ETF trading system, however its always advisable that you use a good system to track ETFs. If you don’t have much experience with this kind of trading that it will probably be suitable if you used a good piece of software. There are a number of packages which have only be designed for tracking purposes. So these are not just intended to be used by newbie’s but also experienced users.

When you use a software system it saves you both time and money in the long run. The software system will teach you more and more about how this trading takes place in a specific market. This helps even new people become experts sooner.

A software system will be able to give you maximum efforts from an ETF trading system. The advantages of ETFs is it gives you access to various commodities including oils and metals. It’s easier to keep track of metals using the ETF trading system.

Businesses tend to purchase these commodities and then hold on to them. The most difficult to track and manage is oil. Oil also has a very high level of risk associated with it but investors see it as an attractive commodity. Business men find etf trading useful because its very tax efficient and compared to other forms of trading its also cheap.

The mutual fund system is not as efficient and convenient as the ETF trading system. Many people who are new to trading don’t know that mutual funds can only be filled once the market has closed. This is certainly not the case with ETFs as they can be purchased and sold immediately and pretty easily. So in many ways you are opening and closing your purchases many times a day.

The advantage of this system is you can add stops and limits to your orders. The right software will help you steer your decision making in the right direction. The more efficient and up to date your information is the higher your chances are of being successful. You don’t have to wait for the markets to close to get the results you want.

The good thing about the exchange traded funds system is that its open to everyone and anyone. This system can be used to increase your profits by either using good software or by relying on an experienced and reliable broker. This is a great yet simple way of trading market profits. However success in this system greatly depends on the data you receive which influences the right decisions. In the end your profits only increase if you make successful and profitable trades which are seen as profit making moves.

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Candlestick Charting is one of the most powerful tools in the trading arsenal of any trader. Candlestick Charts apply to any market no matter what you trade-stocks, forex, futures, options, ETFs, commodities, bonds and others. With one simple glance on the chart, you can figure out the sentiment of the buyers and sellers in the market. There are many candlestick patterns that are used as trading signals. Some are simple while others are complex. Doji Candlestick Pattern is a simple pattern that is very easy to spot. It has no body. It is formed when the opening and the closing prices are the same. So, this pattern is all wicks with no stick. It literally looks like a Cross on the chart. So you can easily spot it. But it is very rare as the security opening and closing prices are seldom equal! Doji has some variations. We will discuss these variations in this article!

For a Doji to be created, a trading day must begin and end with the same price. A whole lot of trading takes place during the day but when it is all said and done, the security price is right back where it had started in the morning.

It is a signal that the battle between the bulls and the bears had been a draw during the trading day when a Doji is formed with the opening and the closing prices equal. Soon, either the bulls or the bears are going to previal. In other words, a trend reversal is about to take place.

A Dragonfly Doji pattern is unique in the sense that the opening, closing and the high prices are all the same or equal. A Dragonfly Doji is formed when the stocks opens, trades down during first part of the day. During some part of the day, the price starts to climb again and eventually closing on the high which is the same as the open.

When a Dragonfly Doji is formed, bears initially decide to rule the market. But at some point the bulls step in and decide to buy again. When the bulls step in, they start pushing the price up. As the bulls dominate the trading day, the security price ends up right where it had started.

Dragonfly Doji is considered to be a bullish candlestick pattern. The low on this pattern can be taken as the support level because this was the level at which the bears entered the market and started buying.

The second important variation to the Doji is the Bearish Gravestone Doji. This pattern is formed when the open and close of the day is equal to the low of the day. This is something opposite to the Dragonfly Doji where the open, the close and the high were equal. When a Bearish Gravestone Doji Pattern is formed, it is a signal that a prolonged downtrend is about to start in the market.

A Doji pattern is very easy to spot on the candlestick chart as there is no body just the wick. Open close and either low or high all three are equal and the candle looks more like a cross. When you spot the Doji, get ready for a trend change in the price action.

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Candlestick charting is a highly powerful tool in the trading arsenal of any trader. In the last two decades, candlestick charting has become highly popular. There are many candlestick patterns that give profitable trading signals. Some are simple while other are complex. Hammer, the Hanging Man and the Spinning Top are three simple candlestick patterns that can be easily spotted. All three are different!

How to spot the Hanging Man and the Hammer? These candlestick patterns are easy to spot on the chart. When you spot a very small candle body accompanied by a pretty long wick on the bottom, it is a Hanging Man if it appears at the top of the uptrend and it is a Hammer if it appears at the bottom of the downtrend.

Now, in most of the cases, you will also find a small wick on the top of the candle body. Now suppose, you find the Hammer or the Hanging Man. What you need is to look for the confirmation the next day!

Now suppose, you think that you have spotted the Hanging Man in an uptrend. Wait for the confirmation the next day with the opening price. If the opening price on the next day is less than the previous day’s close, you have a true Hanging Man. If not, then that was not a true Hanging Man.

Similarly, if you spot a Hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, you need to confirm it with the opening price on the following day. If the opening price on the next day is higher than the closing price on the last day, the Hammer formed was a true Hammer.

Whenever, you trade candlestick patterns, first spot them correctly than wait for the confirmation on the following day. The best chart for these candlestick patterns is the daily chart. Once, you get the confirmation, trade these patterns. They can be highly profitable. But in case, you don’t get the confirmation the next day with the price action, simply ignore the pattern as not true.

A Spinning Top is another candlestick pattern that reveals a tight battle between the bulls and the bears. Whenever, the battle between the bulls and the bears ends in a draw on a trading day, the following day, one side has to give in. When this happens an explosive move in one direction is highly likely.

Spinning tops appear much more frequently and are very easy to spot with a very small body in the middle of the candlestick and almost equal wicks on the two sides. A spinning top is a nice indication that the trend is about to change direction. Knowing about a trend change early is a highly profitable trading signal.

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Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.

For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!

What we can say is that no two trades are exactly alike. So when you look at back testing results, you should look at them with scepticism. But it doesn’t mean that backtesting is entirely useless!

Some markets are highly seasonal. For example, if you are a commodity trader and tend to trade agricultural commodities like the grain, seed or the livestock, these have a fixed planting and harvesting cycles.

For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!

Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.

There is no substitute for live trading results! To tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions.

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