Tutorial Forex

Trading a high probability trading strategy with CFDs is certainly attractive. This style of strategy is right very often, which makes it much easier to trade.

The impact of leverage is not as great as these strategies are less likely to have losing streaks so the drawdown is reduced.

However traders seeking high probability trading strategies may be missing the whole point of trading.

Trading Is Not About Being Right

It is not just the win% that makes a trading strategy work, it is a combination of the win% and the risk reward. Looking at only one of these measures in isolation is a sure way to fail.

Consider the following trading strategy that is profitable 95% of the time. The strategy wins $100 on each profitable trade, so from 100 trades the strategy makes $9,500 trades on average. But what happens on the other 5% of the trades.

If the average loss is $2,500 then the strategy loses $12,500 based on 5% of the 100 trades. Even though this strategy is right very often it still loses money. It is not one or the other measure in isolation, it is the combination of win% and the risk reward.

Losses Still Happen

Most high probability trading strategies rely on small profit targets and wide stop losses. FAP Turbo is one example of this a Forex trading robot that is right 95% of the time.

All goes well until you experience a series of large losses. The losses can be reduced by tightening the stop loss, but this is very likely to reduce the number of times the strategy wins.

Balancing The Tradeoff

Back testing can be used to determine the optimal balance between risk and reward and the win%. Try testing a variety of different stop loss levels to determine the best outcome for risk reward and win%.

In my own trading I have tested a variety of chart pattern breakouts. The best trades breakout and keep going in the direction of the move. Because of this tight stops work ell with chart pattern breakouts as they improve the risk reward results. Profit targets on the other hand improve the win%, but actually reduced the overall profitability.

Make Money First, Be Right Later

Strategies that follow the trend are not right very often and win about 30% of the trades. The wins are much bigger than the losses with a risk reward greater than 3. This combination produces a profitable strategy.

A short term scalping strategy that wins 70% of the time with a risk reward of 1:1 is also profitable.

In the pursuit of being right and chasing high probability trading strategies, remember to ensure that trading is about making money, not being right.

Support and resistance levels enable traders to project how far they believe a currency pair will move. It also tells them at what points the price action of a currency pair may turn around and start moving in the opposite direction.

But sometimes, there is a fundamental shift in the markets. The markets are strong enough to cause a currency pair to break through a previously established support and resistance. When a previous support and resistance level is broken, new levels are established by the markets. Plus, the broken levels may still have some influence on the markets in the future.

Sometimes there are attempted breakouts. This is also known as False Breakouts. It will become obvious to you that prices do not always stop at exactly the same points each time. So if you are going to set up stringent requirements for your support and resistance levels, those levels may not hold up. You would fake yourself out of a lot of valid price movements.

Even when you take all the precautions, you may fall victim to a false breakout. Now, you will ask how I can tell a false breakout from a true one and when the price has truly broken through support and resistance in a new direction.

There are two methods that help you screen out a false breakout with a true breakout. Setting price-amplitude benchmarks and identifying role reversals.

Setting price amplitude benchmarks involves analyzing a chart to determine if you can identify when the price momentarily broke through the prevailing support and resistance level before pulling back and once again returning to the previous level.

The dips through the predetermined levels are usually short lived. You can draw a secondary support and resistance lines which you can then utilize as your price-amplitude benchmarks.

A price amplitude benchmark will tell you if the price has broken through the predetermined level but has not broken through the benchmark; you dont have to worry much about a new direction and the change in the trend direction. However, if the price had enough momentum forcing it to breach the benchmark, it can continue in the new direction establishing a new trend.

Identifying role reversals method involves watching the price action to see if support levels turn into resistance levels and resistance levels turn into support levels. Often, you will see the price action bounce off a level of resistance, then turn around and start heading lower and bounce off the previous resistance level.

Once a resistance level is broken, that same level will turn into a support level. Similarly, when a support level is broken, that same level will turn into a resistance level. You understand both the benchmark and the role reversal confirmations and use both in your trading analysis to filter out a false breakout from a true one.

It is surprising with how long the Chinese economy has taken to strengthen to its current position. Indeed, it could be argued that China, as an economy and therefore an investment opportunity, has simply been treading water for the last two decades. As growth explodes now however; rich pickings are available for those with money to invest in China.

Growth has been most noticeable in several key areas. Most noticeably for the early protagonists that chose to invest in China, is in clothing. Always a sound investment, consumers in the western world are both in need of, and in desire of clothes; male and female alike. Computers too are popular and, to a lesser degree, furniture.

A direct reverse to this has been seen in the toy industry, where growth is seen on a daily basis, despite some “horror” stories regards lead usage in paints, metals and plastics in stuffing materials and sweatshop conditions.

Many other opportunities to invest in China are out there and clearly signposted. For example, China is second only to the US in its consumption of oil; whilst being both the biggest consumer and producer of coal. Indeed, investment in this sector is booming despite the global collective towards environmental concerns.

Assisted by the awarding of contracts to tenders from the west, an area already ripe and only ripening further is to be found in the national railway infrastructure, operations and rolling stock. Whilst not the most environmentally focused of countries, China does at least realize the potential of railway travel for its immense populous.

Before rushing out to Beijing to invest in China however, do be warned. Resilience, determination and a sense of bravery will be called for as the Chinese economy, (as with any other fledging market), can be volatile and prove unsteady; particularly as the world continues to ride the global recession.

Knowing what type of a trader you are, can make or break your investment career. Take the analogy of a football team. All players are talented and super fit. Everyone can throw and catch the ball. Everyone is a hard hitter. However some are more skilled as receivers. Others are more skilled as kickers. If the receiver is going to do the job of the kicker, not many field goal points will be made.

Investing in the markets is also the same. It depends on your personality makeup what type of trading is best suited to you. In general there are three types of trading: Positions trading, swing trading and day trading.

In currency trading, position trading means you are in a trade for many months trying to capitalize on a major long term move in the market. Position Trading is generally the buy and hold strategy of investing in stocks over a long haul. Usually positions traders are in a trade for a large long term move like when you carry trade AUD/JPY. Options traders can also be position traders through covered calls and other strategies.

Swing trading is possibly the most dynamic of the three types of trading. A swing trader is able to switch up holding times quickly as the market demands. Swing traders take advantage of technical and fundamental analysis. Swing Trading means taking short term positions in anticipation of quick market movements over a series of days or weeks.

Day trading is not easy. It is certainly not a hobby. In Day Trading, you attempt to capitalize on intraday movements with the markets often trading on momentum and news. Day traders are also known as Kings of Stress. Sometimes when the positions warrants holding for a longer period, day trading can become swing trading!

You should note that if you dont have time to watch your trades every moment, you should not think of day trading. Day trading is the riskiest of the three trading styles. Day trading is ideal for those who are able to handle erratic market movements while actually also having time to monitor the positions throughout the day.

Swing Trading Is a Better Alternative to Day Trading Many people are attracted to the glamour and excitement of day trading. Day trading hardly ever ends up well especially if the trader has no previous professional trading experience. Only 10% of the day traders succeed. Most day trader usually blow up their accounts and fade away.

Swing trading can be on the other hand a much more effective trading style especially if you are a newer trader. By holding positions overnight and even for a few weeks, you can expose less money for larger moves. If you are a new trader, think about it for a moment.